AAPL▼ short
400 bpsmedium3mo horizon
Thesis
Short AAPL because the call-heavy price surge implies a fundamental acceleration that the next quarter is unlikely to deliver, with revenue growth remaining below 10% and gross margin below 48%.
What would prove this wrong
Apple's next EDGAR Form 10-Q will report year-over-year total net sales growth below 10.0% and a consolidated gross margin below 48.0%.
Unwind Conditions
- [falsified]Cover if Apple's next EDGAR Form 10-Q reports year-over-year total net sales growth of at least 10.0% or consolidated gross margin of at least 48.0%.
- [risk stop]Cover if AAPL closes 12% or more above the position's opening price.