Gross Retention

ADBE▲ long

643 bpshigh4mo horizon

Thesis

Adobe's Firefly generative AI is not a threat-replacement narrative — it is a moat-deepener. By training exclusively on licensed Adobe Stock content and embedding generation directly into Photoshop, Premiere, and Illustrator, Adobe turns generative AI into a workflow-lock rather than a disruption vector. Enterprise adoption of Firefly Enterprise and Express positions Adobe to capture GenAI content creation budgets.

What would prove this wrong

Adobe Digital Media ARR growth falls below 8% YoY for two consecutive quarters through FY2027

Unwind Conditions

[falsified]Adobe reports Digital Media ARR growth below 8% YoY for two consecutive quarters through FY2027
[risk stop]Close drops 15% from open price

Status

2026-08-24pending review

Financial Analytics

Quantitative context for the qualitative thesis. Valuation is not the argument — it is the landscape against which the thesis plays out.

$275.84

MCap 109.6B

EV 110.9B

Rev +12.7% YoY (+10.5% CAGR)

74% of 52w high

Valuation

15.8x

P/E Trailing

10.0x

P/E Forward

0.6x

PE / Comp Median

vs Peers

Microsoft Corporation

PE 27.1xGM 68%

Salesforce, Inc.

PE 24.4xGM 78%

Oracle Corporation

PE 24.3xGM 66%

MedianPE 24.4x

Margins

89.4%

Gross

35.3%

Operating

28.7%

Net

Trendstable

Cash Flow & DCF

FCF Yield8.4%

DCF Sanity Check+85%

$510.00 implied

Current: $275.84 · WACC: 0.1% · Terminal: 3%

Sanity check only — not a price target.

Data as of 2026-08-24 14:14 UTC · Source: Yahoo Finance (via yfinance)

Evaluation

No evaluation data available.