Gross Retention

PLTR▼ short

800 bpsmedium4mo horizon

Thesis

Palantir's government-to-commercial pivot faces a growth reality check as large enterprise deals slow and AI-platform competition intensifies from Microsoft, Databricks, and Snowflake. The premium multiple prices in flawless execution that the next two quarters are unlikely to deliver.

What would prove this wrong

Palantir revenue growth stays above 25% and commercial customer count grows 20%+ through FY2027

Unwind Conditions

[falsified]Palantir reports revenue growth above 25% and commercial customer count growth above 20% through FY2027 — the thesis is wrong if Palantir's enterprise pivot delivers consistent execution
[risk stop]Close rises 15% from open price

Status

2026-08-24pending review

Financial Analytics

Quantitative context for the qualitative thesis. Valuation is not the argument — it is the landscape against which the thesis plays out.

$173.67

MCap 417.3B

EV 423.3B

Rev +92.8% YoY (+32.9% CAGR)

84% of 52w high

Valuation

148.4x

P/E Trailing

75.0x

P/E Forward

5.5x

PE / Comp Median

vs Peers

Microsoft Corporation

PE 27.1xGM 68%

Salesforce, Inc.

PE 24.5xGM 78%

Snowflake Inc.

GM 67%

MedianPE 27.1x

Margins

84.8%

Gross

47.1%

Operating

49.0%

Net

Trendstable

Cash Flow & DCF

FCF Yield0.5%

DCF Sanity Check-77%

$39.80 implied

Current: $173.67 · WACC: 0.1% · Terminal: 3%

Sanity check only — not a price target.

Data as of 2026-08-24 14:14 UTC · Source: Yahoo Finance (via yfinance)

Evaluation

No evaluation data available.