SNOW▼ short
800 bpshigh4mo horizon
Thesis
Snowflake's proprietary data format moat is eroding as Apache Iceberg becomes the industry-standard open table format. When customers can store data in open Iceberg tables accessible by any compute engine, Snowflake loses the storage lock-in that justified its premium pricing. If data is portable, compute pricing must compete on commodity terms, compressing Snowflake's gross margins and growth rate simultaneously.
What would prove this wrong
Snowflake product revenue growth reaccelerates above 30% AND net revenue retention stays above 125% through Q2 FY2028
Unwind Conditions
- [falsified]Snowflake reports product revenue growth above 30% and net revenue retention above 125% through Q2 FY2028 — the thesis is wrong if Snowflake proves the Iceberg threat does not compress growth
- [risk stop]Close rises 15% from open price
Status
pending review